Extraordinary Economic Factors Drive Overhaul of 2009 Global Forecast
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Never has a year been harder to forecast economically than 2009. Careful and historically accurate predictions of this closely watched forecast in scientific R&D were knocked askew by a variety of factors in 2009.
Mens CufflinksA recession, stimulus, new administration, continuing resolutions, and globalization effects have altered the picture of R&D spending from just six months ago.
For 51 years, the editors of R&D Magazine (the past 31 with Battelle) have created an annual R&D Funding Forecast at the beginning of each year to document R&D spending in government, industry, and academia.
In just the past six months, multiple external forces have affected the accuracy of that 2009 forecast, including a deepening recession and the impact of $18 billion of increased government funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) signed in mid-February. These forces have had notable R&D effects in the automotive, biopharm, computer, and other industries.
Overall, including the ARRA investment, federal R&D budgets for FY 2009 reach $165.4 billion or an increase of 12.5 percent over base level FY 2009 R&D funding. At the current annual growth rate of 2.3 percent (FY 2008 to FY 2009) this level would be reached, on base level R&D funding only, in slightly more than five years.
Following are some results from the updated forecast:
Industrial R&D
鈥淲e must remember that there are two themes that pervade the industrial R&D picture,鈥?said co-author Jules Duga, a Battelle senior research scientist. 鈥淔irst, R&D is not a product, but a process: it is not a production line commodity that can be readily turned off and turned on with only short-term consequences in terms of inventories. To the contrary, it鈥檚 an activity that can influence the long-term competitive position and survival of an enterprise. Chanel Jewellery
鈥淪econd, much research is undertaken in a manner similar to a marathon race: a long and oftentimes arduous journey that does not allow even a brief hiatus lest a slower competitor might pass on the way to an earlier finish,鈥?Duga said.
Academia
Stimulus Impact
鈥淭he importance of the stimulus effect on construction and capital expenditures cannot be overstated,鈥?said Marty Grueber, a co-author of the report and a research leader at Battelle. 鈥淎t $3.64 billion, the ARRA alone provides an amount equal to approximately 80 percent of recent years鈥?facilities and equipment budgets.鈥?
Federal Budget Impact
